Thoughts on Coming Apart and the Coming Great Reset
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer
Kit Webster
Themes and Theses
Why I'm Contemplating Out Loud
(Initially formulated in the early 90s, following decades of reading history, philosophy, religion, psychology and a lot of contemplation, particularly on the subject of cycles. In the end, this is a relatively straightforward story about human nature and of history rhyming.)
The US will enter a period of crisis in the early 2000s. In the late 90s, I incorporated Strauss' and Howe's terminology of the Fourth Turning (without incorporating their generations paradigm) and agreed with Howe that the end stage of the crisis began with the Great Financial Crisis and would last into the early 2030s. We are now at the beginning of the end stage of the crisis.
The crisis will be serious and could be existential.
Internal strife will increase, up to and including secession and civil war.
International conflicts will increase as the vacuum created by the weakening of the US is filled by other players.
There will be many threads to the crisis, but the primary thread will be debt, deficits and entitlements. Other factors include, eg, demographics, a loss of meaning and myth and a loss of self-discipline.
Politics will move leftward as citizens look for some refuge from the chaos. The US will become increasingly susceptible to a (man) on a white horse, who can come from either the left or the right.
Inflation, as the most likely way to address debt since austerity is not politically acceptable, will significantly lower standards of living, exacerbating the civil crises.
Eventually, the dollar will be inflated away and lose its reserve status.
Once the old rot is cleared out, and assuming continuity, there will be the basis for the establishment of a new order.
There will be what Strauss and Howe calls a First Turning . It will be constructed out of the physical infrastructure, wealth, energy sources, thoughts and values in the culture at the time. At this point in time, those components are unknowable. We can anticipate that the next future will be increasingly chaotic. We can anticipate that there will be destruction, and then reconstruction from some level. We cannot yet anticipate the form of the reconstruction or the level from which it will begin.
(Added in the early 00s) While humans are contributing to global warming, policies implemented to address manmade global warming will create a significant energy crisis, probably toward the end of the Fourth Turning.
(Added around 2020) The loss of faith by our youth in our founding principles means that the new order will at least partially be based on new principles. As yet, I have no visibility as to what those principles might be.
(Added in 2023) The lowering / elimination of standards in education, the judiciary, law enforcement, the military and other segments of our society will create a population unable to adequately comprehend, do or respond to the challenges of democracy and culture.
(Added in 2025) China has won - at least for the next 5-10 years. The US is dependent on China for the materials it uses to create defense items. We literally cannot fight China without China's help. China's industrial base is impressive; the US has to rebuild. China is out-innovating the US. China is turning out more engineers and scientists than the US by far. This does not mean that China does not face challenges - demographics perhaps being its primary challenge. The US military remains stronger than China's, but in an age of drone warfare, that statement means less than it has historically. The US still has bargaining chips and will need to use them to maintain any kind of status quo.
(Added in 2025) AI has the potential to profoundly affect human culture. However, AI faces several significant hurdles, including the demand for massive amounts of electricity, which may not be available, and a cultural revolt against its existence. Since it could be existential, and since China is pursuing it, the US has no alternative, at least in the short term.
(Added in 2026) Maneuvering for control of critical materials will be a primary driver of geopolitics for at least the next decade.
Oh, Shit!!
October 16, 2026
Quotes to Contemplate
I sorta lost the plot. Is Eurasia still at war with Oceana?? - Kuppy
Summary of Primary Thoughts To Contemplate In This Issue
AI is getting close to one of those inflection points that will change the world.
Trump has all but destroyed Republican chances in the mid-terms (remembering that the incumbent party almost always loses the mid-terms, anyway). So he is throwing Hail Mary's and bribes to the electorate to see if he can pull off a last minute miracle. Don't count him out, at least in the Senate.
Oh, Shit!!
When the "AI will kill us all" discussion popped up a couple of weeks ago, I said that this was an "Oppenheimer moment." We are unleashing untold forces for good and for ill and we have no way to know how it will turn out. So far, the world has not ended in nuclear war, but the jury is still out.
The way AI has been developed has been much like the way software was historically developed - you come up with an idea, you program it and then you test it and implement it.
Initial development, using classic techniques, took a long time, with programmers programming and testing by hand.
Then, AI learned to code.
So, take a system I am working on for companies to use in hiring. I would guess that pre-AI, it would have taken a team of maybe three people maybe 3 months to program and deploy.
It will have taken me two weeks, by myself, using Claude Code. Code, database, QA, UI. All done.
Since AI knows how to program, one of the LLM creators, say ChatGPT, can go to AI and say, "Implement this and test it to get the following results." AI can now develop and change rapidly. That's why you are seeing news of releases pile up on one another.
And Google is catching up, so that the big three, including Anthropic (Claude) and ChatGPT are churning out new capabilities at incredible speeds.
Here's the oh, shit, bit.
Think about AI coming up with the ideas, telling AI what to implement, AI implementing it, and then AI looks at the new system and says, ok, now do the next thing.
Systems can evolve at the speed of computing (oversimplifying) without a human in the loop.
This is called automated iteration or recursion, and it is genuinely awe-inspiring and genuinely terrifying.
We cannot imagine what AI will want to build, and whatever it is will be created more rapidly than we can cope with or understand. At best, we will use AI to wrangle AI.
An article I read this past week says that all three companies are on the verge of this capability.
This is when things can begin to really get out of hand - for good and for ill.
To make things even worse, Anthropic has said that AI will have the ability to replicate itself this year, meaning, among other things, that it will have the ability to hide and to resist efforts to kill it, and also to hijack everyday devices.
This is the atomic explosion at Alamagordo.
Now, we get to hang on for dear life with our fingers crossed.
We will have crossed a bridge into a new plane of existence having new rules.
On par with at least the Industrial Revolution.
But implemented in years and not centuries.
So, You Say You Want A Revolution?
> Trump declares the Nobel Peace Prize has been “forever discredited” after the committee declined to award it to him.
> We knew that already, but nice to have it confirmed - Federal Reserve Bank of New York economists estimated that tariffs lifted consumer goods prices by 2.9 percentage points between early 2025 and February, a period in which those prices would otherwise have fallen.
> The Social Security cliff, when benefits are mandatorily cut by approximated 20%, is now predicted for 2032.
> Trump canceled the livestream execution of the Ft. Hood murderer. Good on him.
> I received my $90 payment for Medicare premium offset. Now I have to decide if I am more likely to support Trump. (Spoiler alert - no.)
The Market
Still think a retracement is on its way.
The Iran War and the Ukraine War
> If you have lost the plot, you are not alone. Trump has pretty much destroyed Republican chances in the upcoming midterms and is now doing a last-minute series of Hail Mary's to try to salvage something. War and principle be damned - rump said he had reached an agreement with Vladimir Putin of Russia to immediately import Russian diesel into the U.S., despite a Russian ban on fuel exports.
These actions include $90 payments (one time reduction in premiums) for Medicare recipients and a $500 "refund" to ObamaCare participants. Of course, we have the $5,000 per person payments promised if the Republicans retain control of Congress.
> Today's report on Iran from Claude -
Pause-and-prepare hardened — with the “mother of all bombs” now on the menu. The pre-midterm freeze held this week, but both the preparation and the signaling escalated. CNN and ABC report the Pentagon has developed strike plans for resumed operations that include potential first-ever combat use of the GBU-43/B MOAB — the largest non-nuclear US weapon — against Iranian energy and nuclear sites. Trump publicly bounded the escalation Thursday: no nuclear weapons, no ground troops — while telling a Montana rally the war will end “very quickly” after the midterms and that Iranian officials are “seeking assurances that they will be allowed to live,” and repeating that he doesn’t know “who the hell we’re negotiating with.” Tehran’s counter-posture: Ghalibaf says Iran seeks neither endless war nor prolonged talks but will fight until Washington accepts its demands; bombs “won’t force surrender”; and — per Lebanese sources to Emirati media — Iran instructed Hezbollah to raise readiness to “advanced levels” for an “imminent” regional conflict, which CTP-ISW reads as deterrence signaling against the strike plans.
The maritime war crossed a threshold: two vessels sank near Hormuz Wednesday — one hit by a projectile, one by a sea mine — the mine warfare threatened since July now confirmed by hulls on the bottom, with Tehran vowing “new tactics” against shipping. The Saudi-Houthi front is becoming a second full war: Houthi strikes hit Saudi Aramco facilities, a Houthi SAM struck a Saudi fighter jet, the Taiz offensive grinds on, and Saudi civil defense issued threat alerts for Najran and Jazan — while France began deploying military assets to Saudi Arabia, the first European ground commitment of the war. Political fronts: Iraq’s parliament seated Iranian-backed militia figures in three ministries and a deputy premiership (Tehran consolidating in Baghdad even as it’s bombed at home); Netanyahu said he opposes any preemptive strike before Israel’s October 27 elections; and the IMF slashed Middle East growth forecasts on a longer-than-assumed Hormuz closure. Watch: whether mine sinkings collapse the fragile transit recovery, and whether the MOAB leak is pressure or planning.
> Today's report on Ukraine from Claude - Trump’s energy ceasefire was announced, violated, and dead inside a week — and the two wars have now coupled. The sequence: Trump announced Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop striking each other’s energy infrastructure — neither government confirmed it (his follow-up: they agreed “because I said they agreed”). Russia struck Kyiv and Kharkiv power plants anyway, killing six. Ukraine honored it unilaterally for several days, then Zelenskyy declared Kyiv “done,” resumed the refinery campaign (hitting Ryazan overnight Wednesday), and accused Washington of weakening Ukraine by withdrawing intelligence sharing. Trump called the refinery strikes “a disgrace,” framing them around diesel prices — Meloni’s retort: the diesel framing “legitimizes Moscow” while it bombs Ukraine. Two structural shocks landed beneath the spat. First: SpaceX throttled Ukrainian Starshield terminals (in-motion speed limits that disrupted strike targeting — “this cannot be a coincidence,” a Zelensky adviser said) before service was restored Wednesday. Second, CNN’s exclusive: Ukraine has fully run out of Patriot interceptors — the global interceptor stockpile consumed substantially by the Iran war — leaving Ukraine exposed to ballistic attack as Russia launched 850+ drones in a single night across 15 regions and shifts tactics to destroy the grid “for good.” Zelenskyy’s offer: he’ll re-pause energy strikes in exchange for Patriots. Ukraine’s counterpunches continue regardless — four Su-34s destroyed and two damaged by Neptune missiles, first combat use of the FP-7 ballistic missile, and last week’s Yandex data-center precedent still reverberating. Meanwhile Hungary and Bulgaria watered down Ukraine’s EU-membership language again, and Washington floated having Europe unfreeze Russian assets as US negotiating leverage. The synthesis: the two wars are now materially linked — through the interceptor market, the diesel market, and a White House trying to manage both on one electoral clock.
Short Takes
> North Korea reportedly introduced an unusual set of basketball rules designed to make games more entertaining and unpredictable. Under this modified scoring system, slam dunks earn three points, while three-pointers that go through the hoop without touching the rim are worth four. Missing a free throw actually results in a one-point deduction, adding extra pressure to every attempt. Perhaps the most surprising rule awards eight points for any basket made during the final eight seconds of a game, allowing teams to stage dramatic last-second comebacks.
Gallery
Bowling alone -
Miscellaneous
Nothing this week.
Election Issues Summary
Maybe you are seeing a trend here. A lot of emotional arguments by candidates that, as a practical matter, cannot go anywhere. People are upset, so candidates promise they can do something about whatever is upsetting you, when they actually cannot do much.
Not only can these problems not be solved, they are, imo, the wrong problems in the first place.
What do I think the most important issues facing the US are? What should we actually be talking about?
1. Debt and deficits - there is a severe decrease in living standards in our future. This is the inflation problem, but no one is discussing it in these terms.
2. AI's impact - it is probably both inevitable and life-changing. We need to begin to figure out what that means.
3. The shared premise that election results, court rulings, and the neutrality of enforcement are binding on the losing side. Both coalitions currently believe, sincerely, that key institutions have been captured by the other — which is exactly the condition under which legitimacy erodes fastest, because each side's defensive measures confirm the other's suspicion.
4. Demographics and immigration - getting control of the borders was important, but now we have to create a viable immigration system. Primary points of discussion include that we are not replacing ourselves and we need skilled and knowledge workers.
5. Healthcare - our system is expensive and dysfunctional. We literally need to tear it up and create a new one. "Medicare for all" is not only a bad idea, it is rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. There are no other ideas on the table.
6. Redefining our role in the world. We cannot afford to rule the world. The world will become an increasingly unstable place once the US begins withdrawing. And it will fracture into power zones. It is not clear where the US will end up over the next 5-10 years when the first iteration of this change will take place. This process will likely encompass one or more wars of varying magnitudes.
Social media, crime, drugs, loneliness, climate change etc., are important, but don't make the top 6. Also on that second list is the dysfunction of parts of the black community. We are wasting a lot of lives and generating a lot of crime, but not as fundamental as the top 6. Another of my hobby horses - the incompatibility of Western values and fundamentalist Islam - is just now beginning to pop up in the US. Far from important now, but the world may look different in 5-10 years.
People running for Congress are doing so on unrealistic, all-but-irrelevant platforms at a time when Congress is not doing much of anything, anyway.
In the meantime, the beginning of the end of my predicted end game has officially begun.
"There is a tide in the affairs of men" and we are now caught in it and have lost most of our ability to do anything but go with it.
Scorecard so far - political position vs. the real world:
Doing away with the Electoral College - all but impossible.
Doing away with the Senate - all but impossible.
Packing the Supreme Court - doable with control of both Houses and the Presidency and elimination of the filibuster.
DC and Puerto Rico statehoods - Huh?
Doing away with inflation - our economy will have disinflationary and maybe deflationary periods, but the inevitable end game for our debt and deficits includes higher inflation and a lower dollar. In general, allowing for volatility, inflation is inevitable. Look for typical, self-defeating, political tactics like rent and price controls to make everyone feel better as pressures increase and foundations rot.
Medicare for all - highly unlikely and, if implemented, a total shock to the system as severe rationing of health care sets in. Our healthcare system badly needs significant reform, but this is a very, very big, complicated problem.
Taking down prisons - kinda fringy, some justification in the sense of reforming prisons. Overall, bad idea. Expensive and resource intensive.
Shut down ICE - Fundamentally changing immigration law is up to Congress. You can throw actual ICE overboard, but someone will have to take up the slack. Practically, the call to shut down ICE is an emotional response to real events and not a viable platform. Meaningful reform of immigration will take a lot of work, however, the process can be much better managed.
Climate change, in spite of being a valid concern, is falling off the election-subject-matter map.
Gun control - going nowhere anytime soon.
Insider stock trading by Congress and the President - common knowledge corruption; voters do not like it. Any useful bill is unlikely to be passed. But candidates can virtue signal at will.
Term limits and gerrymandering are on the laundry list of pro forma-but-required virtue signals that will go nowhere.
Data centers - hysteria everywhere. Real, knotty problems will likely be addressed after the elections.