Thoughts on Coming Apart and the Coming Great Reset
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer
Kit Webster
Themes and Theses
Why I'm Contemplating Out Loud
(Initially formulated in the early 90s, following decades of reading history, philosophy, religion, psychology and a lot of contemplation, particularly on the subject of cycles. In the end, this is a relatively straightforward story about human nature and of history rhyming.)
The US will enter a period of crisis in the early 2000s. In the late 90s, I incorporated Strauss' and Howe's terminology of the Fourth Turning (without incorporating their generations paradigm) and agreed with Howe that the end stage of the crisis began with the Great Financial Crisis and would last into the early 2030s. We are now at the beginning of the end stage of the crisis.
The crisis will be serious and could be existential.
Internal strife will increase, up to and including secession and civil war.
International conflicts will increase as the vacuum created by the weakening of the US is filled by other players.
There will be many threads to the crisis, but the primary thread will be debt, deficits and entitlements. Other factors include, eg, demographics, a loss of meaning and myth and a loss of self-discipline.
Politics will move leftward as citizens look for some refuge from the chaos. The US will become increasingly susceptible to a (man) on a white horse, who can come from either the left or the right.
Inflation, as the most likely way to address debt since austerity is not politically acceptable, will significantly lower standards of living, exacerbating the civil crises.
Eventually, the dollar will be inflated away and lose its reserve status.
Once the old rot is cleared out, and assuming continuity, there will be the basis for the establishment of a new order.
There will be what Strauss and Howe calls a First Turning . It will be constructed out of the physical infrastructure, wealth, energy sources, thoughts and values in the culture at the time. At this point in time, those components are unknowable. We can anticipate that the next future will be increasingly chaotic. We can anticipate that there will be destruction, and then reconstruction from some level. We cannot yet anticipate the form of the reconstruction or the level from which it will begin.
(Added in the early 00s) While humans are contributing to global warming, policies implemented to address manmade global warming will create a significant energy crisis, probably toward the end of the Fourth Turning.
(Added around 2020) The loss of faith by our youth in our founding principles means that the new order will at least partially be based on new principles. As yet, I have no visibility as to what those principles might be.
(Added in 2023) The lowering / elimination of standards in education, the judiciary, law enforcement, the military and other segments of our society will create a population unable to adequately comprehend, do or respond to the challenges of democracy and culture.
(Added in 2025) China has won - at least for the next 5-10 years. The US is dependent on China for the materials it uses to create defense items. We literally cannot fight China without China's help. China's industrial base is impressive; the US has to rebuild. China is out-innovating the US. China is turning out more engineers and scientists than the US by far. This does not mean that China does not face challenges - demographics perhaps being its primary challenge. The US military remains stronger than China's, but in an age of drone warfare, that statement means less than it has historically. The US still has bargaining chips and will need to use them to maintain any kind of status quo.
(Added in 2025) AI has the potential to profoundly affect human culture. However, AI faces several significant hurdles, including the demand for massive amounts of electricity, which may not be available, and a cultural revolt against its existence. Since it could be existential, and since China is pursuing it, the US has no alternative, at least in the short term.
(Added in 2026) Maneuvering for control of critical materials will be a primary driver of geopolitics for at least the next decade.
Watching Reality Intrude
November 13, 2026
Quotes to Contemplate
The Barbarian hopes—and that is the very mark of him—that he can have his cake and eat it too. He will consume what civilisation has slowly produced after generations of selection and effort but he will not be at pains to replace such goods nor indeed has he a comprehension of the virtue that has brought them into being. Discipline seems to him irrational, on which account he is for ever marvelling that civilisation should have offended him with priests and soldiers. - Belloc
The moment you are disturbed by insult or pleased by praise, you are still a slave. - Marcus Aurelius
There is no Trumpism, however, only Mr. Trump, following instincts and impulses that hew to no identifiable ideology. - Oren Cass
Summary of Primary Thoughts To Contemplate In This Issue
The Democrats, as politicians do, made simplistic statements to get votes. Now they have to face reality and adjust their positions, accordingly.
The midterm elections were not a blue wave - it was swing voters who swung against Obama swinging back the other way. They are still on their swings.
Most politicians, and particularly liberals, do not and never have understood Economics 101. We will be seeing a flood of stupid ideas that have failed time and again, and some will actually pass. I will be talking about affordability next week, but, unfortunately, there is really very little that is positive that a politician can do in the short term. So, they go for crowd-pleasing, destructive-in-the-long-term actions like price controls of various kinds. Democrats are on the rise and affordability is at the top of the voters' agenda, so, here we go.
It would be stupid of Trump to launch another meaningful attack on Iran. That does not mean it will not happen or that it will not include nuclear weapons.
Watching Reality Intrude
Following some reflection on the election outcomes, I will start out with a contentious statement:
This was not a blue wave.
This was a case of swing voters rejecting Donald Trump.
Those swing voters are still on their swings.
Several cycles ago they rejected Obama in a red wave.
A vacuum has been created in governance - the Democrats are entering a battle for their souls and the Republicans are basically destroyed, without their leader and without any coherent ideology.
The world will change a lot between now and 2028.
But, while not a blue wave, it was a deepening blue tinge as the voters move left into chaos.
Next point - Democrats will have to face reality. It is one thing to make simplistic pronouncements to stampede the herd, it is quite another when you have to face real life consequences.
Let's take the wars, data centers and spending.
They want to end the war in Iran.
So do I. That was one of the most profoundly destructive decisions made by anyone since the end of World War II, and I include Vietnam and Iraq in that group.
However, here we are.
If we simply leave, then Iran becomes a nuclear hegemon in the Middle East, with the remainder of the Middle East wanting to create nuclear weapons themselves.
This is a particularly difficult, perhaps intractable, situation.
Worse, Iran will have less incentive to settle now that its foe, Trump, is weakened and all the pacifist Democrats are in power. Simple game theory says they now have a stronger hand.
We simply must have data centers. They are the foundation of a digital economy, AI or no AI, and AI is important - perhaps existentially important. Democrats are going to have to find ways to implement data centers.
Affordability. It has always been ridiculous to assume that the President can control prices, particularly global prices of a commodity like oil. And essentially no one understands that the prices of gasoline and diesel today are dependent not only on the price of oil, but on the capacity of refineries, which is being reduced by the day and which will take maybe a decade to restore. Food prices are likely going up because of issues around the Iran and Ukraine wars. Again, a global issue.
Democrats want to supply support to everyone - free everything from child care to education to healthcare. You can debate the wisdom of that, but what you cannot debate is that our government now has over $40 trillion in debt and is incurring a $2 trillion deficit every year. There is no money for anything, no matter how righteous.
I have been addressing Democrats, but it is not like Republicans have covered themselves in glory. They started the war and they joined in the jihad against data centers.
However, it is the Democrats who are inheriting the problems and they who have to face reality.
Unfortunately, many of our worst problems are intractable, at least in the short term.
Which will mean that swing voters will likely be disappointed heading into 2028.
Going back to data centers - the great irony is that we will not be able to build them even if they are approved. We will not have the copper, steel, electricity and other things necessary for their creation.
And many of the components and materials we need primarily come from China.
This is the second profound predicament we find ourselves in -
The Iran war, and
China's dominance in materials, components and electricity over the US.
We are in an extraordinarily tenuous position and I do not see leadership capable of addressing these issues.
The good news is that Democrats will have fresh opinions - some good and some bad. Let's hope the good ones prevail.
So, You Say You Want A Revolution?
> Total insanity. Liberals never learn their lessons about markets.
California voters just passed Prop 37. Buyers of newly built homes can now put down 3% instead of 20%. How: the state lends you the other 17% as a second mortgage, funded by up to $25 billion in bonds.
Since demand, all things being equal, will go up, prices will go up. The creditworthiness chicken will come home to roost, probably in 5-10 years, probably during the next economic downturn.
> Trump's promotion of Stephen Miller to Chief of Staff indicates that he is preparing for battle.
> A meeting among Xi, Putin and Trump would be one of the scariest things I could imagine. It also signals that Xi and Putin think that Trump either still has power or can be easily manipulated.
One alternative is that they make a grand bargain, essentially carving up the world and trading issues. Sort of a 21st century Yalta Conference.
One interesting bit is that the Senate must approve all treaties, although that requirement has pretty much been ignored for decades.
> Trump has admitted that his deportation policy was “too tough” and has offered to strike an immigration deal with Democrats in a concession after the Republicans’ disastrous defeat in the midterm elections.
> California voters rejected the wealth tax.
It will be back in several states, soon.
The Market
Still in the midst of a retracement in the stock markets.
The way to bet is that, since everyone is expecting an AI crash, there won't be one ... yet.
The Iran War and the Ukraine War
> The Trump administration has now turned to China for help to end the Iran war, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent formally pressing China to use its influence with Tehran to end the conflict, a US official tells WaPo.
> Trump unveils “Task Force Iron Gate,” ordering an expansion of the U.S. blockade on Iran to include land transportation.
> Trump has backed off his threats of another major attack on Iran. Recall our discussions about how the US is almost out of bullets (missiles), severely restraining its ability to attack and defend.
Random Post-Election Stuff
> Georgia Governor-elect Keisha Lance Bottoms officially names filmmaker Tyler Perry to her gubernatorial transition team.
> Abdul El-Sayed declares “Michigan is the capital of Arab America."
> Absolutely chaotic scene as conservative activists Jake Lang and Thomas Allen storm a Diwali Hindu celebration at the Seattle Center Armory. They held signs that read, "Deport All Dot Heads" and "Stop Hindu Replacement of Christians."
> More abject economic ignorance - but we will have a long, long row to hoe with Elizabeth Warren - Sen. Elizabeth Warren reveals Democrats have legislation ready to cap credit card rates at 10%.
> Sanders does not support Schumer for Senate Majority Leader.
> Mamdani starting the ball rolling for AOC nomination for 2028 presidential run.
> If we keep this up, we will wind up with as many holidays as Catholics - Democrat Rep. Grace Meng has reintroduced a bill that would make Diwali a federal holiday.
> I just read where Greenville County, SC, went Democrat - one of the most conservative places in the nation.
I really don't care, but it brought back fond memories.
My extended family lived in Greenville and Spartanburg, SC, although I grew up outside of Atlanta.
My beloved Uncle Jack, World War II bomber pilot and extraordinarily good person, was as conservative as they come. He and I had many disagreements - I was a child of the 60s, you see, and he was a staunch Christian and the embodiment of all of the country's founding virtues.
He lived to be 102, and we quit discussing politics a long time ago. I felt he was always a little disappointed in me that I strayed so far.
But I have fond memories of him and of jousting over politics as I was trying to grasp the way the world worked, and he knew how, all too well.
Gina Hinojosa
Last week, I said I was surprised by Hinojosa's election and knew little about her.
So, I asked Claude and got the response at the bottom of this post.
So, kinda down-the-middle Democrat - except for her Trump-like promise of $1,500 to every Texas household.
Unlikely to get much done, given a divided legislature.
And she has the Democrat religious zeal for public education as student performance craters all around her - something someone needs to explain to me someday.
Seems nice enough, but totally unimpressive.
She is leading with some bipartisanship, which is what she has to do to succeed at anything. Let's give her the benefit of the doubt that she is sincere.
But these days, I consider unimpressiveness a huge plus, given the damage many politicians are routinely doing and the number of sociopaths running around, particularly in the Trump-associated groups.
Texas will be ok.
But, just ok.
It will take years before we can actually know, but the Texas golden goose may be mortally wounded. Texas may be trending toward ordinary.
Oh well. Definitely a classic Democrat without any working knowledge of Econ 101. She says she is going to freeze electricity rates.
If she is successful, brownouts all but guaranteed in fewer than 5 years.
The definition of insanity ...
(Austin's electricity is supplied by the city. Will be interesting to see if municipal utilities are affected.)
Wants to repeal Texans' right to carry weapons.
What are the odds Musk starts moving to Florida?
Short Takes
> FAA says air traffic control will phase out floppy disks in the next two years.
> Last Tuesday was the 51st anniversary of the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald.
Gallery
Miscellaneous
I like the one about the student who doesn't like Shakespeare because his writing uses too many cliches.
Claude on Hinojosa
Hinojosa, the Austin state representative, ran as the Democratic nominee for Texas governor in 2026 against Greg Abbott. KPRC reports that she won, and she is scheduled to be sworn in as governor in January. Her platform, as described in news coverage, centered on four areas: household affordability, public education, health care, and what she framed as corporate influence over state government. click2houston
Affordability and the $1,500 check. Her signature proposal was a one-time payment to every Texas household. She branded it a “corruption tax refund,” and it would need approval from the GOP-controlled Legislature, funded from the Economic Stabilization Fund (the Rainy Day Fund). Her plan would keep about $10 billion in reserve and return the remaining roughly $17 billion. She also said she would declare affordability an emergency on her first day in office. Using the fund for that kind of purpose requires a two-thirds vote in both chambers. Her other cost-of-living pledges included freezing electricity rates and banning bad-faith denials by health insurers. www.sacurrent.com +4
Property taxes. Her platform promises to end corporate subsidies and use the savings to cut property taxes, with the long-term goal of eliminating residential property taxes. She gave no timeline for that, and she defended local governments’ authority to set their own tax decisions. click2houston
Public education. This was the core of her campaign. She is one of the most prominent critics of Abbott’s school voucher program, and she said she would sign a bill repealing the private-school portion of the 2025 education savings account program, while acknowledging that such a bill would be hard to get through the Legislature. She pledged to fire TEA Commissioner Mike Morath on day one, cancel Abbott-era TEA contracts, redirect that money to teacher pay, and pause the A–F accountability system tied to the STAAR test. Her platform also calls for more support for neighborhood public schools, higher teacher salaries, and less high-stakes testing. www.sacurrent.com +3
Health care. She committed to pushing the Legislature to expand Medicaid, and said the federal government would cover most of the cost. Her campaign also promises support for rural hospitals. click2houston
Data centers and water. She called for an immediate moratorium on new data centers, an end to their tax breaks, and new protections for affected communities. She argued data centers should pay sales tax on their electricity, saying the current exemption costs the state more than $1 billion a year. More broadly, she argued state leaders must prioritize residents’ water supply over large corporations. click2houstonstateside
Border security. She criticized Abbott’s spending on prosecuting immigrants for trespassing, but did not promise to eliminate border security funding or offer a specific border budget