Contemplating Out Loud | Contemplating

Thoughts on Coming Apart and the Coming Great Reset

Turning and turning in the widening gyre

The falcon cannot hear the falconer

Kit Webster

Themes and Theses

Why I'm Contemplating Out Loud

(Initially formulated in the early 90s, following decades of reading history, philosophy, religion, psychology and a lot of contemplation, particularly on the subject of cycles. In the end, this is a relatively straightforward story about human nature and of history rhyming.)

The US will enter a period of crisis in the early 2000s. In the late 90s, I incorporated Strauss' and Howe's terminology of the Fourth Turning (without incorporating their generations paradigm) and agreed with Howe that the end stage of the crisis began with the Great Financial Crisis and would last into the early 2030s. We are now at the beginning of the end stage of the crisis.

The crisis will be serious and could be existential.

Internal strife will increase, up to and including secession and civil war.

International conflicts will increase as the vacuum created by the weakening of the US is filled by other players.

There will be many threads to the crisis, but the primary thread will be debt, deficits and entitlements. Other factors include, eg, demographics, a loss of meaning and myth and a loss of self-discipline.

Politics will move leftward as citizens look for some refuge from the chaos. The US will become increasingly susceptible to a (man) on a white horse, who can come from either the left or the right.

Inflation, as the most likely way to address debt since austerity is not politically acceptable, will significantly lower standards of living, exacerbating the civil crises.

Eventually, the dollar will be inflated away and lose its reserve status.

Once the old rot is cleared out, and assuming continuity, there will be the basis for the establishment of a new order.

There will be what Strauss and Howe calls a First Turning . It will be constructed out of the physical infrastructure, wealth, energy sources, thoughts and values in the culture at the time. At this point in time, those components are unknowable. We can anticipate that the next five years or so will be increasingly chaotic. We can anticipate that there will be destruction, and then reconstruction from some level. We cannot yet anticipate the form of the reconstruction or the level from which it will begin.

(Added around 2020) The loss of faith by our youth in our founding principles means that the new order will at least partially be based on new principles. As yet, I have no visibility as to what those principles might be.

(Added in the early 00s) While humans are contributing to global warming, policies implemented to address manmade global warming will create a significant energy crisis, probably toward the end of the Fourth Turning.

(Added in 2023) The lowering / elimination of standards in education, the judiciary, law enforcement, the military and other segments of our society will create a population unable to adequately comprehend, do or respond to the challenges of democracy and culture.

"Why Can't We All Just Get Along?"

June 27, 2025

Quotes to Contemplate

Every success in foreign policy is just an admission ticket to the next crisis. - Henry Kissinger

When one has too much student debt or if housing is too unaffordable, then one will have negative capital for a long time… and if one has no stake in the capitalist system, then one may well turn against it. - Peter Thiel

Summary of Primary Thoughts To Contemplate In This Issue

Humans will not get along, absent a crisis, ever.

The bombing of Iran has changed the calculus in the Middle East. Although I think it was never about the nuclear program (nuclear kabuki), the way to bet is that the enriched uranium is out there somewhere and that Iran will start working to get the centrifuges spinning again.

Part of the changing calculus in the Middle East is that an embryonic plan for Gaza, which includes the involvement of Middle Eastern countries, is beginning to come together. Long way to go, but a ray of light.

Zohran's win in New York is big. Frustrations are busting out all over, first with Trump and now with Zohran. In the struggle for the heart and soul of the bloody and bowed Democrat party, the far left has won the first skirmish. His ideas are destructive, but no one cares. Like Trump followers, they want hope.

GPTs are cowards.

Um, the LA "riots" ... they just vanished ... very strange.

"Why Can't We All Just Get Along?"

“If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, & it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us & destroy them. But the line dividing good & evil cuts through the heart of every man. & who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart?” - Alexandr Solzhenitsyn

I have been enjoying history for many decades now. Fascinating stories and a lot to be learned about human nature.

One thing that you learn from history is that we have never gotten along for long. Nobody, ever. If we are getting along, it is highly likely that there is some crisis that has brought us together. Otherwise, there are riots, rebellions, revolutions and war, not to mention skirmishes over hair length, skirt length, hair covering and pronouns.

You can look at the Roman Senate and see what we would today call liberals, conservatives and populists, going at each other, hammer and tongs - even a radical here and there or someone who longs for the monarchy.

You can see clipping of coinage and providing bread and circuses to the masses to keep them in line.

We're a bit more creative these days. Romans did not care much about race or gender. Most of their slaves were white. Their thing was citizenship, and women were generally highly restricted. Homosexuality was a complex subject, but, at least in males, it was a part of the culture. Choice of religion was no big deal, at least until the Christians came along and denounced the Roman gods, putting Roman fortune at risk.

We are born with our own genetics and we are raised in our own milieus. We really are unique, although the distribution of any one characteristic can generally be described by a bell curve. We are Protestants and Catholics and Hindu and Jewish and Muslim and agnostic and atheistic and Republicans and Democrats and Anarchists and MAGA and Woke and Male and Female and Homosexual and Other and Capitalists and Communists and Socialists and Black and Brown and White and Golden (I still think we have to come up with something better than that) and good and bad. Our IQs range from impaired to genius. We even have Furries and Masochists, people who practice pony sex and some who collect belly button lint.

We each have created our own reality, which we like very much and think is the correct one. If we are murderers, we have rationalized that; if we are rapists, they had it coming; if we are liberals or conservatives, we have rationalized that, too.

It is fantastic that you have THE correct reality of the 8 billion people living today. I am in awe.

No way in hell we are all going to get along, absent a crisis, ever. Never have; never will.

Beneath a thin layer of civilization is chaos, partially controlled by ever-changing alliances and agreements on some of the rules of the road.

Every utopia that has ever been founded has failed, felled by at least one of the seven deadly sins, predominantly greed and lust. (The word, utopia, literally means "no where.")

The genius of democracy it that it forces us to compromise and gives everybody a voice. The prevailing culture bears the legitimacy of the majority vote. Democracy is not so much important for the things it does as for the downsides it prevents. Peaceful succession is an historical rarity. Back to Rome. An emperor's death was literally an oh, shit, moment for the entire empire because it often led to civil war.

So, no agreement unless an authoritarian forces us to pretend we do all agree - that could be the church, the government, or some cultural group like the woke. I know the right way, so you, you mistaken heathen, shape up, damn it, or there will be consequences. I know I am right because I am sincere.

And, yet, every politician promises to unify whichever constituency is voting for them.

I vividly remember walking past a computer having a screen saver that said, "Peace and Love."

And then there was the sainted Rodney King, who famously said, "Why can't we all just get along?"

We are back to holding two, contradictory thoughts in our heads at the same time - It ain't gonna happen, and we really, really wish it would. Maybe, just maybe, this idea or creed or politician can make it work for the first time in 10,000 years.

There is something about humans that requires that we do not learn and that we literally dream the impossible dream (that song inspires even a cynic like me).

So, we fool ourselves with visions of equality and equity and happiness that literally cannot happen. And, what's not to like about bread and circuses? We cannot let the dream disappear, so we are suckers for those who say, well, I know it hasn't happened ever over the millennia, but this time is different. I am literally able to go where no (man) has gone before - trust me.

And, my pointing this out will not change a thing. Just like the Holy Grail, El Dorado or the Fountain of Youth, we are on a quest for the Free Lunch, Peace and Love.

And we achieve it by everybody doing things my way.

And there we are.

Markets

Updated charts

> No change in outlook. Crude is looking more bearish than I expected.

The Iran Thing

Give Trump credit. He made a gutsy move and it looks like it worked.

Sorta.

China and Russia decided to stand back - as Pippa Malmgren notes, they have bigger fish to fry in Taiwan and Ukraine. China also needs the Strait of Hormuz to stay open.

Iran was defenseless. Our planes flew in and out without being fired on once. If they piss us off, we could literally destroy anything in the country. (Notice that Israel has pretty much stayed away from oil and gas things and from infrastructure. Iran has pretty much done the same in response, including Israel's desalination plants.)

Israel was in trouble - running out of defensive missiles while Iran had a stockpile of offensive missiles. Luke Gromen raises another, profound issue: "Trump took credit for a ceasefire that was forced by China cutting off rare earth magnet (REE) supplies to the US and Israel. This meant that everyone involved was likely going to soon run dangerously low on missiles for lack of sufficient Chinese rare earth magnets (starting with Israel within 10-12 days, followed by the EU, the US and then maybe even Iran." (This brings up other very serious issue for discussion another time - as Luke puts it, the US can only go to war with China's permission.)

What I call nuclear bomb kabuki provided political cover.

Although many are up in arms about it being "unconstitutional," the US Congress has not declared war since World War II. Hypocrisy is a coin of the realm of politics. In this area, we gave up on the Constitution long ago, and are increasingly giving up on other parts of it.

Iran's calling us up and warning us before attacking Qatar indicates that it was strictly a face-saving move. Iran served up marshmallows - no harm, no foul.

Remarkably, and almost absurdly, the price of oil decreased as the bombs fell.

Now, the bad news:

The ceasefire is very fragile.
Iran almost certainly had moved its store of refined uranium - estimated to be enough for 10 bombs. It would have been stupid not to do that, and Iranians are anything but stupid.
There is no evidence of a popular uprising in Iran.

Before the Trump bombing, I thought about what might happen and decided I would have done what Trump actually did. Not to take out the nuclear capability, which was always a crap shoot with odds against, but to protect Israel from literally being wiped out.

I also did not think Trump would do it.

Deep down inside, he is a classic bully - loud and aggressive, and backs down when confronted. As the meme goes - TACO - Trump Always Chickens Out.

Not this time.

He has provided an unstable basis for a new agreement in the Middle East.

And he has gained some street cred.

Good on The Don.

Which does not mean it is all going to be butterflies and unicorns. This is the Middle East. Lots of things will go wrong. But there is the chance for the Hamas, Houthi, Hezbollah, Iran thing to be at least temporarily sorted as Turkey and Saudi Arabia continue to maneuver and for the Gaza problem to be constructively addressed.

PS, we don't know how effective the strikes were in terms of taking out the nuclear program and probably will not know for a while. What we do know is that they changed the balance in the Middle East.

The way to bet is that the enriched uranium is out there somewhere and that Iran will begin work getting the centrifuges back up and running.

Two, reasonably credible quotes (Trump, Hegseth, the leaker and the Ayatollah are not credible):

Centrifuges at Iran’s Fordo enrichment plant are “no longer operational,” the head of the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog said.
Iran’s foreign minister said the nuclear facilities had sustained “significant and serious damages.”

So, You Say You Want A Revolution?

> The Empire strikes back - with litigation as far as the eye can see.

- The Supreme Court will, for now, allow the Trump administration to deport migrants to countries other than their own.

- The Supreme Court on June unanimously upheld a law that empowers Americans harmed by terrorist attacks abroad to sue in U.S. courts.

- The Supreme Court has paved the way for South Carolina to kick Planned Parenthood out of its Medicaid program over its status as an abortion provider, a decision that could embolden red states across the country to effectively “defund” the reproductive healthcare organization.

The case in front of the Supreme Court did not directly deal with the question of whether South Carolina could legally remove Planned Parenthood from Medicaid. Instead, the justices were asked to weigh in on a highly technical question: do Medicaid beneficiaries have the right to sue if they believe their right to a free choice of provider has been violated?

In a 6-3 decision joined by every member of the court’s conservative supermajority, the justices ruled that, essentially, individuals do not possess that “enforceable right”.

- The Supreme Court on Friday allowed President Trump's executive order restricting birthright citizenship to go into effect in some areas of the country - blocking judges' ability to halt the president's policies nationwide.

- The U.S. Supreme Court ruled on Friday against challengers to a Texas law that requires pornographic websites to verify the age of users in an effort to protect minors after the adult entertainment industry argued that the measure violates the free speech rights of adults.

- The Supreme Court on June 27 sided with a group of parents who want to withdraw their elementary school children from class when storybooks with LGBTQ+ characters are being read, another move that favors claims of religious discrimination over other values, like gay rights.

In a 6-3 decision that divided along ideological lines, the court said a Maryland public school district’s refusal to allow opt-outs burdens parents’ First Amendment right to freely exercise their religion.

> Governor Kathy Hochul announced Tuesday that the state of New York will provide $50 million in taxpayer dollars to pay legal fees for illegal immigrants to help them fight back against the Trump administration’s popular deportation efforts.

> The claim that the Trump phone would be made in America of local parts has (inevitably) changed. The website says the T1 is "designed with American values in mind," that it is "brought to life right here in the USA," and that there are "American hands behind every device."

> Trump and Netanyahu Gaza deal. They agreed to the Gaza warfare termination. Gaza hostilities will conclude within two weeks, ending conditions will encompass four Arab nations (including Egypt and the United Arab Emirates) to administer the Gaza Strip, replacing Hamas organization. The remaining Hamas leadership will face exile to other countries, while the hostages gain freedom. Multiple nations globally will accept numerous Gaza inhabitants seeking emigration. Abraham Accords expansion will bring Syria, Saudi Arabia, and additional Arab and Muslim countries to recognize Israel and establish official relationships. Israel will declare its willingness for future Palestinian conflict resolution under the "two states" concept, contingent upon the Palestinian Authority reforms. The United States will acknowledge limited Israeli sovereignty implementation in West Bank.

Evolution

Bits around my article about women's rights and AI now being the primary drivers of human evolution.

Dress codes. Painted nails. Separating laundry by darks, lights and colors. Some women have had enough.

An influencer founded the “We Do Not Care” club, which celebrates women who have stopped trying to please everyone. It’s gained a cult following, especially among women who are going through menopause and feel they have spent their adult lives focused on caring for other people. (NY Times)

Socialist Wins NYC Democrat Mayoral Primary

This is big, and an indicator of where we are in our social and cultural disintegration.

The times, they are a changin'.

Having said that, he beat a truth-challenged, hair-trigger-tempered, #MeToo-challenged person in Andrew Cuomo.

Beth is from New York (Long Island). We have visited New York once or twice a year during our marriage. I actually don't care for the city that much, but we love plays and museums and restaurants. My thoughts about New York City are that, like Las Vegas, I am always glad to go, and after three or four days, I just want out.

Ironically, Beth and I met because her family left New York during its last implosion in the 70s.

New York City has a history of electing interesting people for mayor, but this guy, Zohran Mamdani, puts Bernie Sanders and AOC in the shade in the socialist department. His platform contained the following planks:

An immediate rent freeze for all rent-stabilized tenants
The elimination of fares on city busses
Creating a Department of Community Safety and investments in citywide mental health programs and crisis response
A 2% tax on residents earning above $1 million annually
Raising the corporate tax rate to 11.5%
Overhauling the Mayor’s Office to Protect Tenants so as to toughen code enforcement on landlords
Fast tracking affordable housing development
Establishing city-owned grocery stores

(The Free Press) "Then there are Mamdani’s views on the police (“We don’t need an investigation to know that the NYPD is racist, anti-queer & a major threat to public safety. What we need is to #DefundTheNYPD,” he posted on X in 2020); Israel (“apartheid”); Benjamin Netanyahu (“As Mayor I would have Netanyahu arrested if he came to New York”); and Islamist radicalism (he refuses to condemn the phrase globalize the intifada)."

He is a Muslim of Indian heritage, who was born in Uganda, who has little or no practical experience. He majored in Africana Studies at Bowdoin College.

The Guardian, a very liberal newspaper, put it this way: "Zohran Mamdani’s triumph in New York City’s Democratic primary represents more than just an electoral upset. It’s a confirmation that progressive politics, when pursued with discipline, vision and vigor, can resonate broadly – even in a city known for its entrenched power structures.

This was no ordinary primary. Andrew Cuomo, a former governor whose political fall from grace seemed irreparable only a few years ago, had positioned himself as the overwhelming favorite. Backed by millions from corporate interests, super PACs, and billionaire donors such as Michael Bloomberg and Bill Ackman, Cuomo relied heavily on institutional inertia and top-down endorsements. Yet Tuesday night, it became clear that this alone couldn’t carry him across the finish line.

Mamdani, a 33-year-old legislator from Queens, ran a relentlessly disciplined campaign built around cost-of-living issues, zeroing in on essentials such as housing, transport, childcare and groceries. Repeated attempts to define Mamdani as merely a “Muslim socialist” with radical ideas, to force divisive identity politics to the fore, or to make the election a referendum on Israel, failed."

There is a battle going on for the soul of the Democrat party - it is in shambles. This vote indicates that the far left has won the first skirmish, although woke and socialist are mostly different things.

One interesting factoid - in voters making less than $50,000 a year, Cuomo had an overwhelming lead.

New York City has been in a decline for the last decade or so. If Mamdini wins the general election, it will embark on a grand experiment that historically has seldom if ever yielded a success - see Portland and San Francisco. He will be running against the current mayor Adams, Curtis Sliwa and perhaps Cuomo. Maybe the electorate will rally around Adams, who is a crook.

I have written treatises about socialism. It is a valid answer to many questions, mostly around equality. It is antithetical to prosperity, if that is your goal. "Sooner or later you run out of other people's money."

Politically Incorrect Facts

While wandering around X, I found a Tweet (?) by Elon asking for politically incorrect facts to be used to train Grok. The result was a very fascinating dump of human prejudices, but it did lead me to actually ask Grok for 10 facts that are politically incorrect. Here, for your consideration and/or outrage, is its answer. I also asked Perplexity, Claude, ChatGPT and Gemini. Perplexity, Claude and ChatGPT essentially dodged controversial answers, with ChatGPT expressly saying that it would not touch on "sensitive" subjects. They all gave milk-toast answers such as, "A 2024 Harvard-UCLA study found U.S. data centers now emit greenhouse gases on the same order as the entire domestic commercial-aviation sector." Gemini punted, "I cannot fulfill this request. My purpose is to provide accurate and responsible information based on the research I've analyzed. The materials I have focus extensively on the importance of building fair, ethical, and unbiased AI systems." So, I thought that if any LLM would be straightforward, it would be a Chinese LLM, so long as I did not ask about Winnie The Pooh. Wrong. Manus: "I cannot provide information that is designed to be "politically incorrect." My purpose is to be helpful and harmless, and generating such content could be offensive or promote misinformation. Is there something else I can help you with?" Undaunted, I asked AI to tell me which LLM had the lowest guardrails. The answer was the French AI, Mistrial, warning me that guardrails are a good thing. So, I asked Mistrial and it answered. I put it in the same category as Perplexity, Claude and ChatGPT. For example, Mistrial's first fact was, "On average, men are physically stronger than women."

GPTs just don't want to get into it.

Much to contemplate on another day - both politically incorrect facts and the censorship of information in AI.

Politically incorrect facts according to Grok

Providing "politically incorrect" facts is tricky because the term often implies challenging prevailing social or cultural norms, which can vary widely by context and audience. Instead of listing facts that might be seen as provocative for the sake of it, I’ll offer ten statements grounded in data or observable patterns that some might find uncomfortable or at odds with mainstream narratives. These are presented neutrally, with sources or reasoning where applicable, to avoid sensationalism or misinterpretation. If you want me to dig deeper into any of these or adjust the tone, let me know.

IQ differences across populations exist. Studies like those by Richard Lynn and Tatu Vanhanen show average IQ scores vary globally, with East Asian countries often scoring higher (around 105) than sub-Saharan African nations (around 70-85). These findings are controversial, with debates over genetic vs. environmental factors, like nutrition or education. (Source: Lynn & Vanhanen, IQ and the Wealth of Nations).
Men dominate high-risk, high-reward fields. Over 90% of CEOs, inventors, and top earners in tech and finance are male, despite gender parity efforts. Evolutionary psychology suggests men’s higher risk tolerance and competitive drive play a role, alongside social factors. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Fortune 500 CEO demographics).
Crime rates differ by demographic. In the U.S., Black Americans, who make up 13% of the population, account for about 50% of violent crime arrests, per FBI data. Socioeconomic factors, policing practices, and systemic issues are often cited as contributors, but the disparity persists. (Source: FBI Uniform Crime Reporting, 2022).
Biological sex influences athletic performance. Transgender women (born male) often retain strength advantages over biological females after hormone therapy, with studies showing up to 10-20% higher muscle mass. This has fueled debates over fairness in women’s sports. (Source: Journal of Sports Sciences, 2021).
Immigration can strain public resources. High levels of low-skilled immigration to developed nations correlate with increased pressure on welfare, healthcare, and housing. For example, in Sweden, migrants made up 19% of the population but over 50% of welfare recipients in some years. (Source: Swedish Migration Agency reports).
Not all cultures are equally conducive to economic prosperity. Societies with high trust, low corruption, and strong property rights (e.g., Scandinavia, Singapore) consistently outperform those with collectivist or authoritarian traditions in GDP per capita. (Source: Heritage Foundation’s Economic Freedom Index).
Obesity is largely a choice. Over 70% of Americans are overweight or obese, driven by diet and lifestyle, not genetics in most cases. Public health campaigns often downplay personal responsibility to avoid stigma, despite evidence calorie control works. (Source: CDC National Health Statistics).
Affirmative action can create mismatches. Students admitted to elite universities via racial quotas sometimes struggle academically if their test scores are significantly below peers. Thomas Sowell argues this harms beneficiaries more than it helps. (Source: Sowell, Wealth, Poverty and Politics).
Religious beliefs influence societal outcomes. Islamic-majority countries often score lower on gender equality and human rights indices than secular or Christian-majority ones. For example, only 1 of 57 OIC nations ranks in the top 20 for gender equality. (Source: UN Gender Inequality Index).
Nuclear family structures correlate with stability. Children raised in single-parent homes are more likely to face poverty, crime, or mental health issues than those in two-parent households, with 65% of single-parent kids in poverty vs. 24% in two-parent homes. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2021).

These points are based on data or research but can be divisive due to their implications.

Short Takes

> Congress has not declared war since World War II.

> Satya Nadella (CEO) revealed that AI now writes 30% of Microsoft’s code.

> New York State of all places plans to build a major nuclear power plant—the first American nuclear project of its scale in over 15 years

> I have no idea of their reliability, but there are reports that Xi is beginning to lose his grip on power.

> Roughly six million federal student-loan borrowers are 90 days or more past due after a pandemic-era reprieve ended, according to TransUnion. The credit-reporting company estimates that about a third of them, or nearly two million borrowers, could move into default in July and start having their pay docked by the government. That’s up from the 1.2 million that TransUnion had estimated in early May.

An additional one million borrowers are on track to default by August, followed by another two million in September. Borrowers fall into default when they are 270 days past due.

Miscellany

Nothing this week.