The end of the Fourth Turning is still ahead of us, maybe as much as a decade. 

I have been trying mightily to think about what the First Turning - a time of renewal and rebuilding - will look like, without much success. There will just be too much chaos and too much change between now and then.

Literally everything is up for grabs.

But, for the moment, let's put aside all of the really bad outcomes and focus on what a future might look like, assuming infrastructure and energy and food supplies remain relatively intact.

Let's start by reviewing previous ends-of-Fourth-Turnings / beginnings-of-First-Turnings. Let's think about the profound change during each Fourth Turning.

Strauss and Howe mark the end of the first of America's Fourth Turnings as 1794. That Fourth Turning began in 1773. The Colonists had some disagreements with the Crown, but essentially everyone who sought independence, and they were in a distinct minority, thought that it was their state that would become independent. A United States was all but unimaginable. By the end of the Fourth Turning, a war had been fought, the mightiest army on Earth had been defeated, the states had united and a fledgling country had been born based on a Constitution and Bill of Rights.

The next Fourth Turning ended with the ending of the Civil War.

Before the Civil War, few thought slavery would be ended. Lincoln campaigned on stopping the expansion of slavery into new states; he did not campaign on the abolition of slavery. By the end of that Fourth Turning, some 600,000 people had died, the South was economically devastated and slavery was abolished.

The next Fourth Turning ended at the end of World War II.  The beginning of that Fourth Turning was at the end of the Roaring 20s - a time of hedonistic excess. By the end of that Fourth Turning, we had endured both the Great Depression and World War II. At its beginning, Hitler had not yet gained power in Germany. Another outcome was that the United States had been fundamentally changed. From a country that valued states' rights and sturdy individualism, it had become centralized and increasingly socialized. Our Founders, for better and for worse, would have been astounded to see the 20th century United States.

Which brings us to today and the difficulty of even imagining the magnitude of the changes that are likely in our future.

Which does not prevent a little, low confidence speculation.

Essentially all of my contemplation has been about the current Fourth Turning. I have speculated that current institutions are dysfunctional and must be at least reconstructed if not torn down and replaced. I have also speculated that Fourth Turnings are ripe for (men) on white horses. It is an overstatement to say that Washington, Lincoln and FDR were autocratic, but you can see it from here. All three backed off when the task was done (well, actually, two died) and democracy was either initiated or reinstituted. We don't talk about it much, but it is only because of his extraordinary character that Washington did not become king. FDR, however, literally became president for life and his death allowed the system to start functioning again.

So, I would guess that we get a man on a white horse and will see where that leads. Trump is doing a good job of trying to be a man on a white horse, but he has appeared too early in the turning. The ground does not yet seem well prepared for autocracy. (An oligarchy is also a reasonable alternative.)

Another of my speculations is focused on our younger generations' frustration with the values, norms and structure of our culture. They do not understand the precious fragility of the freedoms we have. What they see are the messiness and the downsides. It is not clear that the Constitution survives as the foundational document of the coming First Turning. 

We talk about creating a new Constitution, but that will be extraordinarily difficult. Our current Constitution was heatedly negotiated behind closed and locked doors, by a bunch of English white guys - and Hamilton - with no media presence. If there is some major threat or emergency, perhaps, but otherwise, I give it a snowball's chance in hell.

We also have two examples of cultures that decided to tear everything up and start over again at Day 0 - the French and Russian revolutions. Neither of those show much promise as role models.

Autocrats and oligarchs do not need constitutions.

I have speculated that the world's financial system will be fundamentally changed. The dollar may remain as a reserve currency, but only as one of several. The accumulated worldwide debt must be dramatically reduced to prepare the field for future growth. I think inflation will be a major weapon in this fight, but in any event, a lot of wealth must disappear.

Beyond that, the Oracle of Delphi was kind enough to give me a pair of her doves, so I could take a look at their entrails. Here's what the doves had to say.

I have discussed environmental and resource challenges in these spaces, but particularly in a book I wrote and released several years ago. These issues will increasingly be included in the future institutions and culture, but it is not clear to what extent. In a crisis, particularly an existential crisis, one does not think of whales. That would come during the Second Turning.

It is likely that our current moral and spiritual vacuum will be filled with something. As part of my return-to-basics theme, there could even be a spiritual re-awakening and flourishing of religion(s).

The primary thing the doves said was that there will be a return to small-c conservatism. Back to basics.

It is ironic that humans know the right thing to do, but the alternative is often more fun.

One of my slogans is that sex, drugs and rock and roll win every time.

But, that is no way to nourish human flourishing.

Let's change the primary metaphor from doves to pendulums. 

Simplistically, since we have been focusing on individualism and identity, it is reasonable to think that we will turn to hard work, responsibility and valuing the collective. There will be time enough for hedonism in later Turnings.

Particularly interesting will be the roles of the family and of children in this new world.

It is ironic that changing society to provide for females to fully participate has, as unintended consequences, the significant devaluation of  both the family and children. (Perhaps the ultimate irony is that the sexual revolution has led to people having less sex. As part of an overall theme I have not quite gotten my head around, there is less sex, but women are participating more fully when they participate.)

I speculated on this some time ago in a piece titled "You Only Had One Job," but we are basically creating a culture that does not create humans. Current trends literally lead to the extinction of the human race (never, never extrapolate these things forever - new forces will inevitably arise).

We value our individuality to the point of destruction of our existence.

Clearly, that has to stop, which has profound implications for self-fulfillment of females, and also for gender relations.

I have no idea, but we have created an "unnatural" situation that must change.

As I look back on Western history, the family has been a consistent, key feature of each culture, as has the suppression of women. Today, as we both highly treasure children and abort them en masse, we forget that valuing children and child development are also recent in human history. Children were variously expendable, labor for the farm, beings to be sent to boarding schools ... Emotional development was essentially never on anyone's list.

And, still, humanity continued and thrived.

We are unlikely to re-create any of these, but my point is that most of our assumptions about the way the world should work are fundamentally different than they were in the past. Clearly, if we are not to adapt an old model, we are going to have to create a brand new one.

Finally, I should speculate on the role of AI.

Unfortunately, I am in the camp that AI will upend our assumptions about employment and work. AI could even be an existential threat.

I have spent a good deal of time thinking about a world in which work is unavailable, either because existing resources will not support it or because AI has taken much work away - I will discuss these thoughts another time.

Since many humans get meaning and self-worth from work (together with taking up time (one day I will talk about the critically important topic of how we fill up time)), a world with little-to-no work will be a profoundly different world, inhabited by beings who will have redefined what it means to be human.

That's as far as I have gotten. There are too many contingencies for me to have a clearer view, and it is not obvious that things will become clearer anytime in the near future. 

We are simply on the cusp of profound change.​

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Partial segue.

Remember Pippa Malmgren and how I think she waivers between brilliant and bonkers? Well she has another tome out.

Those who do not follow history may not realize that, at least in the US, we go through religious awakenings on a regular basis. Google describes four such Great Awakenings in our history.

A religious awakening could provide the basis for a principle around which various identities could rally and also small-c conservative values.

Through a glass darkly - I have no idea, but it is an intriguing idea I will keep track of.

Here's Pippa: "But, what religion has to do with the world economy these days. The answer is everything. Our beliefs shape our economies and our geopolitics. A peace movement is rippling through the Christian and Islamic worlds and amongst the young worldwide – the young in America, the young in China, the young in the Middle East, including Israel, and amongst the young in Europe too. The “No More War” Movement is gaining momentum. It now has religious leaders advocating for peace and intermediating between nations that are at, or on the brink of war. President Trump is surprising everyone by making alliances with religious figures and foreign warlords while turning the sniper scopes onto America’s home-grown warlords."