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Thoughts on Coming Apart and the Coming Great Reset

Turning and turning in the widening gyre

The falcon cannot hear the falconer

Kit Webster

Themes and Theses

Why I'm Contemplating Out Loud

(Initially formulated in the early 90s, following decades of reading history, philosophy, religion, psychology and a lot of contemplation, particularly on the subject of cycles. In the end, this is a relatively straightforward story about human nature and of history rhyming.)

The US will enter a period of crisis in the early 2000s. In the late 90s, I incorporated Strauss' and Howe's terminology of the Fourth Turning (without incorporating their generations paradigm) and agreed with Howe that the end stage of the crisis began with the Great Financial Crisis and would last into the early 2030s. We are now at the beginning of the end stage of the crisis.

The crisis will be serious and could be existential.

Internal strife will increase, up to and including secession and civil war.

International conflicts will increase as the vacuum created by the weakening of the US is filled by other players.

There will be many threads to the crisis, but the primary thread will be debt, deficits and entitlements. Other factors include, eg, demographics, a loss of meaning and myth and a loss of self-discipline.

Politics will move leftward as citizens look for some refuge from the chaos. The US will become increasingly susceptible to a (man) on a white horse, who can come from either the left or the right.

Inflation, as the most likely way to address debt since austerity is not politically acceptable, will significantly lower standards of living, exacerbating the civil crises.

Eventually, the dollar will be inflated away and lose its reserve status.

Once the old rot is cleared out, and assuming continuity, there will be the basis for the establishment of a new order.

There will be what Strauss and Howe calls a First Turning . It will be constructed out of the physical infrastructure, wealth, energy sources, thoughts and values in the culture at the time. At this point in time, those components are unknowable. We can anticipate that the next five years or so will be increasingly chaotic. We can anticipate that there will be destruction, and then reconstruction from some level. We cannot yet anticipate the form of the reconstruction or the level from which it will begin.

(Added around 2020) The loss of faith by our youth in our founding principles means that the new order will at least partially be based on new principles. As yet, I have no visibility as to what those principles might be.

(Added in the early 00s) While humans are contributing to global warming, policies implemented to address manmade global warming will create a significant energy crisis, probably toward the end of the Fourth Turning.

(Added in 2023) The lowering / elimination of standards in education, the judiciary, law enforcement, the military and other segments of our society will create a population unable to adequately comprehend, do or respond to the challenges of democracy and culture.

Diversity - Good Thing or Bad Thing?

November 28, 2025

Quotes to Contemplate

Due to US energy, grid, fiscal, engineering, and skilled trades constraints, China may have already won the AI race and ‘Great Power Competition’ - Luke Gromen

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For 20 years I’ve been writing that we are going to reach a place with only bad choices and worse choices. There will be no good choices. As far as the Federal Reserve goes, I think we are there. - John Mauldin

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If you were the devil, how would you destroy the next generation, without them even knowing it?

ChatGPTs responses were profound and unsettling:

“I wouldn’t come with violence. I’d come with convenience.” “I’d keep them busy. Always distracted.”

“I’d watch their minds rot slowly, sweetly, silently. And the best part is, they’d never know it was me. They’d call it freedom.”

Summary of Primary Thoughts To Contemplate In This Issue

The loss of the Epstein file battle indicates the beginning of the end of Trump's firm hold on the Republican party. He is not yet a lame duck president in that he still has a great deal of power, but it is beginning to wane.

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Diversity is a virtue made of necessity. We have no choice but to constructively embrace it. 

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Our economy is being held up by smoke and mirrors. That could continue to go on for a while ... or end tomorrow.

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Trump is actively trying to basically cede all captured territory in Ukraine to Russia, gain no reparations for Ukraine, and go home. I have long said that I think Russia would ultimately win, but caving is strange, unnecessary, and a major abandonment of both Ukraine and Europe, which will be left with Russia's continuing desire for expansion. It is difficult to continue a high level of outrage against Trump - it is exhausting. In this case I am also totally dumbfounded.

Diversity - Good Thing or Bad Thing?

Yes.

You knew the answer would be yes, because you know one of my mantras is, everything has its tradeoffs.

Since we have adopted diversity as a religion - an unmitigated good - in the US and most of the rest of the Western world, criticizing it is anathema. 

That hasn't stopped me, yet.

So, let's start by noting that there is no sanctioned mix of peoples, races, religions, whatever. There is no right answer. The fact that the Proud Boys are all for whites or that the far left is for anyone not on the right does not mean that those definitions came from god. They are made up by a group of humans, and, while not quite arbitrary, would probably fail any Platonic or Aristotelian tests. Fad is too strong a word, but not entirely inappropriate. These things come and go.

A stroll through history reveals an amazing kaleidoscope of combinations of races, religions, classes, nationalities, and a similar kaleidoscope of clashes and changes over time. And, things did not turn out great for Chinese or Muslims who turned inward.

Repeat after me, no right answer.

Everything has its tradeoffs is a corollary to setting your objectives; it depends on what you want. What are your objectives and how does (anything, but we are talking about diversity here) diversity fit in to all of that?

Some time ago, I wrote that in the US, diversity was making virtue of necessity. We woke up one day and there were all these blacks and all these whites and the doxology included, "we are a nation of immigrants," and "all men are created equal," so, there we are. Like it or not, we are in this together and so we have to get along.  The fact that essentially all immigrants who came here freely at and immediately after our founding were white was not worth discussing. We were having a tough time dealing with the Irish (and Catholics and Jews).

Diversity is an unmitigated good, and, by god, you will like it.

This dovetails into another of my discussions. I posit that all humans are not necessarily racist, but have an inborn fear of the "other." It comes in many forms - Hatfields and McCoys, Japanese and Korean, Shia and Suni, black and white, farmers and cowboys, people with used cars in their front yards. If you have a different skin color or speak a different language or have different habits, you are suspect from day one.

That means that, prior to the universal kumbaya moment, a successful diversity has to be reinforced by law and social norms.

And, by god, you will like it.

What do you do when whites don't get along with whites and Christians don't get along with Christians and nobody gets along with the Jews, as has been the case for, well, forever? You throw some blacks and Muslims into the mix. Might as well.

And then you get customized diversity - you know - my kind of people, no matter race or creed - not all kinds of people - just my kind of people. Famously, liberals are not excited about the Christian right and the right is not pals with the woke. Diversity these days is actually Diversity*, where diversity is not so much about diversity as it is the entrance criteria of a multiracial / multi-whatever club.

So, we are actually not doing diversity, we are actually reverting to the grouping that humans do best - tribalism. The fact that our tribe includes multiple religions is a prideful kind of thing. We feel better in our self-righteousness and about ourselves. It is still a tribe. A Diverse* tribe.

So what?

Well, you can't unscramble an egg. You have yourself Diversity*, and you have to deal with it.

Again, not going deeply into things I have written about before, your culture will evolve in multiple dimensions. Minorities will take shots at whites, not because they are really the bad guys, but because they were on top and their culture prevailed and now minorities (reasonably) want their say and the introduction of their cultures. Whites like the things the way they put them together in the first place. There would be a resistance against black supremacy in Zimbabwe, if anyone wanted to migrate there.

This is not a melting-pot kind of thing. This is an evolution where all sides affect the other. Everybody changes - some a little; some a lot.

Except conservative Muslims and a lot of blacks.

There is an unresolvable, perhaps existential, tension between Islam and the West. That evolution will be fascinating.

Black culture and white culture have been influencing each other over time. One of my observations is that whites are becoming increasingly black. But that is around the edges. In the middle, black culture and white culture do not mix well. So long as whites dominate in population, blacks who want to be black "code switch" - white in the white milieu and black in the black milieu. 

All of which gets us where?

We have a sufficiency of Diversity* fanatics and also those who long for the good old days. Lots of our tribe and code switching.

Diversity is neither a virtue nor a sin. It is what you want it to be.

Today, we want it to be Diversity* to the point that we are now not inviting relatives that are not in our tribe (think about that statement for a second, relatives that are not in our tribe - we may be the very first humans in all of history to be able to make that statement) to Thanksgiving dinner.

​The snowball is rolling down the hill.

Diversity is both a strength and a weakness.

Getting along in a diverse society is an imperative, because that is what we have.

Diversity* and our current demographics include irresolvable contradictions, so the conflicts will continue and evolve as demographics and ideologies change.

Given our current demographics, we need to constructively make virtue of necessity.

And there we are.

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As an aside, I struck gold when I asked AI how Big Brother in 1984 would approach diversity. AI said that diversity was antithetical to Big Brother's governance and therefore he would employ Newspeak and Doublethink to redefine terms. Here are some of its thoughts:

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  • "Diversity of thought" would mean "Orthodoxy": The "good" form of "diversity" would be a universal adherence to the single Party line. The Party might praise the "diverse" ways in which citizens arrive at the same, correct conclusion, which is loyalty to Big Brother. As the character Syme explains, true orthodoxy means "not thinking — not needing to think".

  • "Diversity in unity" would mean "Conformity": The slogan might be framed to celebrate the elimination of individual differences in favor of a collective, uniform identity under the Party's banner. All citizens would be "diverse" in their role within the state machine, but identical in their function and  beliefs.

Markets

Updated charts 

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> No change in outlook. EVERYONE is looking for a crash, which is a great argument there will not be one. The Fed and Treasury will do whatever they can to prevent one - our economy is too weak to withstand one. The damage in terms of increased deficits would be significant. While I think a retracement in here is in the cards, I continue to be of the view that we have an extraordinarily sick, fragile economy that is being held up by smoke and mirrors. So long as smoke and mirrors are effective, it is onward and upward. One day it will get very, very ugly, and that day could be today. I just don't think so.

> A very respected housing analyst just appeared on the Thoughtful Money podcast predicting a decline in home prices of 50%. I can't even begin to imagine that.

> From The Morning Dispatch - A series of reports released yesterday offered a broad look at the state of the American economy. The producer price index—a metric that measures price changes for products and materials used by producers—increased 0.3 percent in September, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Automatic Data Processing reported that private companies lost an average of 13,500 jobs per week over the last four weeks, a 440 percent increase since its last report. American restaurants and retail stores saw sales increase 0.2 percent in September from the month before, according to a new report from the U.S. Census Bureau, and analysis for the real estate brokerage firm Redfin found that the number of American home sellers who took their property off the market increased 28 percent in September from 12 months ago. The Consumer Confidence Index dropped 6.8 percentage points from last month to 88.7, its lowest monthly figure since April, and analysts at Bank of America warned that the introduction of new betting markets, including Polymarket, is increasing lenders’ credit risk.

Michael Green Describes A World I Remember Well

1963 was the year I graduated from high school.

"For 1963, ... Housing was relatively cheap. A family could rent a decent apartment or buy a home on a single income, as we’ve discussed. Healthcare was provided by employers and cost relatively little (Blue Cross coverage averaged $10/month). Childcare didn’t really exist as a market—mothers stayed home, family helped, or neighbors (who likely had someone home) watched each other’s kids. Cars were affordable, if prone to breakdowns. With few luxury frills, the neighborhood kids in vo-tech could fix most problems when they did. College tuition could be covered with a summer job. Retirement meant a pension income, not a pile of 401(k) assets you had to fund yourself." 

You can go through all the bad things, because there are always bad things - segregation, subjugation of women. But life back then was ... what? ... easier. Just easier. I'm not one of those people pining for the good old days, although for me they were wonderful. I would not have lived as long nor have been able to have traveled the world nor have been able to experience the wonders of modern technology. I am arguing that life for the average, middle class person, was easier. Shorter with fewer wonders, but easier.​

Neil Howe On The Difference Between Aspirations and Fertility Rates

Since 1936, Gallup has asked Americans how many children they consider ideal. This summer, the answer reached 2.7, the highest in 50 years. But in reality, Americans are having far fewer children: The total fertility rate is just 1.6. That’s a record 1.1-child shortfall between aspiration and reality.

So,  You Say You Want A Revolution?

> The loss of the Epstein file battle indicates the beginning of the end of Trump's firm hold on the Republican party. He is not yet a lame duck president in that he still has a great deal of power, but it is beginning to wane.

> What strange times. Marjorie Taylor Greene is resigning from Congress. My guess is that since she turned against Trump, he was going to support someone against her in the upcoming primaries and she didn't want the fight.

> Trump and Mamdani established a mutual admiration society at their recent meeting. Who knew? Great headline from the Washington Post - "Two Socialists Walk Into The White House."

> The Supreme Court temporarily reinstated the Texas redrawn election maps.

> The odds are that the Democrats will take back the House midterm. That implies an almost certainty that Trump will be impeached. The odds of his being removed are low, but the odds of impeachment are high.

> Give me a contemporary example of irony - White House announces it has eliminated the Department of Government Efficiency, in apparent cost-saving measure.

> Whoa - President Trump signals support for a sweeping new proposal that would ban foreign-born citizens from holding any elected office in the United States.

> The New York Times - The peace proposal released last week read like a wish list for Russia. (Kit) You know I have continually said that it was likely that Russia would win the war, but caving like this is beyond disgusting.

> Trump was filmed dragging one leg. May have been a one-off, but we'll see. Headline - New York Times - Shorter Days, Signs of Fatigue: Trump Faces Realities of Aging in Office.

Short Takes

> The world is literally losing its mind. In my experience, it is the far left that randomly says batshit crazy things. The right is catching up, fast.

Charlie Kirk was assassinated because he discovered that Epstein was alive and living in Israel.

Candice Owens says that Macron has taken out a hit on her.

I have been thinking a lot lately about how Trump has normalized lying and corruption to the point that he says the damnedest things and wilI just move on to the next thing. We just expect Bondi or RFK Jr to come up with something that is just off the wall.

His supporters say, with some reason, that he is trying to do some good things that need to be done. 

I agree that our system, before Trump, was badly broken (after all, that's why I am "here") and that Trump is throwing monkey wrenches in some good places.

But, on net, I think the cost is too high.

Biden's corruption and policies were bad - maybe approaching Trump's in "badness." Only, grandpa had a better image than the Trumpian Genghis Khan persona and was corrupt in a more conventional/acceptable way.

What Biden showed is that corruption and bad policies are ok on both the left and right as long as they are our corruption and bad policies. As long as we keep the other side out of office at all costs.

Oh, well. Nowhere to go with this, except to note that Candice Owens and Nick Fuentes are getting wider audiences, which indicates that culturally, we are continuing to deteriorate fairly rapidly.

> The average cost of electricity has increased 11% in the US so far this year.

> From the Telegraph - David Lammy is set to scrap jury trials for most crimes despite previously arguing that they are fundamental to democracy. In leaked documents, seen by The Telegraph, the Justice Secretary has proposed juries will only decide upon cases of murder, rape, manslaughter and other serious offences carrying sentences of more than five years.

> Everyone gets a trophy! Another parable of our age. A recent study of Harvard students found that a remarkable number of them believe they should get A’s so long as they worked hard and did all the homework. Whether they actually understand anything is irrelevant, so long as they feel deserving.

> PostNord, the state-run postal service in Denmark, will stop delivering letters at the end of 2025, though it will continue to deliver packages.

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